Testing the Leveling Plan Against a Demand Shock

Why it matters

A leveling plan looking orderly does not mean it is feasible. The right color and the right quantity can be placed in every time slot; but the processing and setup load of these quantities may not fit into the available time. The first test is to calculate the total load for the same resource and the same period. Even if the processing demand is right, when setup is forgotten the plan uses time that does not actually exist. The capacity gap is first written under its plain name. A smoother product sequence can reduce the load peak; if it keeps the same setup and the same processing total, it does not by itself create the missing minutes. The legibility of the plan and its physical adequacy are evaluated separately.

A demand shock is a noticeable change in the quantity or the product mix on which the plan rests. While the total units change little, the share of a product that needs longer processing can rise. In this case, multiplying the new demand by the old average time hides the real load. Each product's new quantity must be calculated with its own processing time. The shock can affect not only the processing load but also the setup order, the material need, the number of containers and the first delivery. Even if the daily capacity looks sufficient, the short window of an urgent order may not be met. For this reason the total and the time order are run together as two separate tests.

The authority and scope of the response options must be clear. Reducing setup time, providing extra production time, transferring load to suitable capacity or renegotiating the delivery condition are different decisions. None is accepted as realized by itself. Another resource being idle does not show that it can provide the same quality at the same time. Extra time requires worker availability and a safe working condition. Changing the delivery also requires the customer's acceptance; the planner cannot unilaterally count a late delivery as on time. The numerical comparison makes the options visible; it must not present unapproved conditions as an existing resource.

A clear decision rule is needed between protecting the plan and renewing it. If the whole sequence is disrupted at every small change, setup can increase and previously verified deliveries can be harmed. On the other hand, continuing the old sequence when there is a clear gap hides a promise that cannot be kept. The appropriate approach is to examine together the verified demand version, the real capacity of the remaining period and the affected deliveries. If there is a missing changeover time or unverified material, that part of the decision is left open. From the initial gap to the demand shock and the testing of two alternatives, this lesson produces a decision while keeping the same unit and the same delivery limit.

Formula